Market Context — 2026-08-13 Update (v10)
CPI came in benign; Fed hold odds firming. July CPI matched consensus (0.1% MoM), following a soft jobs report and easing yields — 10-year at 4.67%, September hike odds falling to ~46% and dropping further after inline print. PPI due today is the next data point. Rates backdrop is now supportive rather than a headwind, removing one of the key swing risks flagged yesterday.
Memory bull thesis is now a full re-rating, not just a bounce. SK Hynix/SanDisk +8%, Micron +6% (back above $1T market cap), Western Digital +4%, Samsung +6.7%, KOSPI +5% — all confirmed and holding. Drivers: Temasek's reported first-ever direct stakes in Samsung/SK Hynix, Micron's warning 2027 supply will be tighter than 2026, Intel's Lip-Bu Tan on memory-CPU stacking, and South Korea's $576B chip megaproject. Valuations remain modest (18-25x trailing P/E for the rally, SKHY still ~5x forward), so this looks like genuine re-rating, not exhaustion. New confirmation: China's CXMT overtook Tencent as China's most valuable company — underscores how broad the AI-memory frenzy has become, and how real the Chinese competitive threat is long-term (2-3 gens behind but closing, and Apple is already testing CXMT chips). SK Hynix's $720B total buildout (Yongin+Cheongju) is now framed as a generational bet against boom-bust history. Shareholder-return specifics still deferred to Q3 — watch for that catalyst. Korea's $19B leveraged-ETF unwind scar and Nextrade's 9/14 volatility mechanism remain background risk items, not active threats today.
CoreWeave/AI-infra margin story fully confirmed, broadening. Q2 beat drove +18-19%, read-through lifted Nebius (+15-28%), Supermicro, IREN, IREN, Lumentum, AMD, Broadcom. Even bears (Bernstein, Shkreli) raised targets while keeping negative ratings — debt/leverage concern is now a minority view. Software (Workday, Salesforce, Palantir) continues to lag; hardware/infra rotation is intact and arguably accelerating. Fidelity's Timmer flags the semiconductor ~40-month earnings cycle nearing peak rate-of-change, yet leveraged chip ETF (SOXL) inflows remain "sticky" — dip-buying behavior persists despite the warning.
Macro/geopolitical: Iran deadlock is structural, not resolving. No ceasefire, mutual accusations, reparations demands from both sides, Pakistani mediator seeking 60-day truce extension. Oil elevated (WTI ~$84, Brent ~$90), IEA cutting demand forecasts, SPR below 300M barrels. This is now a persistent grinding risk rather than a near-term catalyst — better tracked than traded. 30-year yield off highs but still historically elevated (5.23%).